By Abdulrahman Al-Rashed
(Originally published in Asharq Al-Awsat)
Seven years ago, I wrote about the “regional rise of Israel.” Today, that rise has accelerated, especially in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, reshaping Israel’s regional identity. The key question now is: How does Israel view its role in the Middle East?
From Defensive to Offensive: Israel’s Strategic Shift
For decades, Israel’s military and political strategy was built around defending its borders and existence. It focused on countering Iran, neutralizing threats from Iraq under Saddam Hussein, and limiting Syrian influence under Bashar al-Assad.
Now, Israel is entering a new strategic era. With many of its traditional enemies weakened or dismantled, Israel faces no credible regional threat capable of military action against it. Even Iran, still vocal, has lost significant offensive capability.
This shift has opened the door for Israel to transform from a defensive state to a regional power — a move that could either stabilize or destabilize the Middle East.
Two Futures: Regional Stabilizer or Power Player?
Israel’s future could go in one of two directions:
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The Stabilizer Role:
Israel could choose to preserve the new regional status quo, expand peaceful relations with Arab nations, and build long-term partnerships. This approach could signal the end of hostility and boycotts, allowing Israel to secure its interests through diplomacy. -
The Dominant Force:
Alternatively, Israel may use its military superiority to actively reshape the region in line with its political goals. This could lead to further conflicts and provoke fears among regional powers wary of Israeli expansionism — fears that have long been part of the rhetoric from countries like Iran and factions like the Muslim Brotherhood.
Hamas Attacks and Israel’s Regional Activation
The October 7 attacks by Hamas served as a catalyst. Israel, once more cautious, has been thrust into the center of regional geopolitics. This begs a critical question:
Is Israel pursuing peaceful coexistence, or does it see itself as the regional enforcer — a kind of Middle Eastern "police"?
Why “Greater Israel” Fears May Be Overstated
Concerns over a so-called "Greater Israel" — a plan for regional expansion — have resurfaced. But these narratives are largely fueled by ideological opponents, not actual policy. Despite military victories, Israel has shown no serious intent to expand its borders beyond the territories it occupied in 1967.
The real internal challenge is demographic:
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20% of Israeli citizens are Palestinian.
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Full annexation of the West Bank and Gaza could lead to a Palestinian population nearing 50%.
This would threaten Israel’s Jewish identity — a foundational element of its political system.
Demographic Limitations and Geopolitical Realities
Israel is unique in the region for its focus on preserving ethnic and religious identity, which complicates its ability to expand geographically. Most countries in the Middle East embrace cultural diversity, but Israel fears demographic dilution.
This fear, coupled with the challenges of absorbing hostile populations, limits its long-term expansionist capabilities — making demographic integration, not territorial expansion, the primary concern.
Conclusion: Israel's Role Still Unfolding
Israel's future path — whether it chooses diplomacy or dominance — is still being written. While it may emerge as a military contractor, geopolitical player, or leader of a regional alliance, the region’s complex dynamics ensure no single power can dominate for long.
Whatever role it chooses, Israel’s influence in the Middle East has never been stronger — and the world is watching.
Israel Middle East strategy, regional power Israel, Greater Israel, Israeli military influence, October 7 attacks, Iran Israel conflict, Arab-Israeli relations, geopolitical role of Israel, Israel West Bank Gaza, Israel future strategy
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